The Valkyries Can Tie for First at the All-Star Break Tonight

Win a 10th straight against Washington and get a Lynx loss in Seattle, and Golden State finishes the first half even with Minnesota. The rematch tips at 7 p.m. PT, the same moment the Lynx tip across the country.

The last game before the break, with first place in play

The Valkyries (19-7) host the Washington Mystics (12-12) at Chase Center tonight at 7 p.m. PT, the back half of a two-game set and Golden State's final game before the All-Star break. Eight days off follow, so the result they carry into the break is the result they sit with for a while.

The standings math is simple because the schedule lined it up that way. Minnesota (20-6) tips at Seattle (6-21) at the exact same moment tonight, the only other game tipping at that hour. Win and the Lynx lose, and the two teams finish the first half tied at 20-7. Win and Minnesota wins, and Golden State stays one game back. Lose and the Lynx win, and a gap that has been one game for nearly a week stretches to two. Minnesota is a 10.5-point favorite in Seattle, but the Lynx have allowed at least 80 points in seven straight games and just let Portland shoot 48 percent and hit 13 of 30 from deep, so the help is not impossible.

The rematch is interior against perimeter, and the arc decides it

The league's own preview frames it cleanly: Washington is interior-powered, Golden State is perimeter-oriented, and Saturday was each team failing to defuse the other's strength. The Mystics pounded the paint 40-16 and outrebounded the Valkyries 37-26, with Shakira Austin grabbing 16 boards by herself, more than any two Golden State players combined. The Valkyries answered from deep, saving four of their 12 threes for the final 5:55 and scoring 12 of the 15 points in the 15-4 closing run from beyond the arc. The full recap of that 74-69 win is here.

Washington's season-long problem is finishing games. Five of the Mystics' 12 losses have come by five points or fewer, and Saturday was the latest, a game coach Sydney Johnson believed his team played well enough to win. The closing minutes showed why they did not. Up 65-59 with 6:13 left after a Lauren Betts layup, the Mystics drifted away from the paint that had owned the game and started launching, going 6-for-23 from deep on the night and 2-for-8 with three turnovers the rest of the way. Three of those late misses were threes.

Natalie Nakase's answer to the size gap is not a new big. It is team defense, and specifically Stokes and Thornton. "We understand they're very tall, big and physical in size. So it's got to be a team effort," Nakase said afterward. "I just thought attention to detail with KT (Kayla Thornton) and Kiah (Stokes) down the stretch, just defending without fouling, it was beautiful that last five minutes. For us to rely on our defense down the stretch was huge." Stokes and Thornton, and how they handle the Austin, Iriafen, Betts rotation without sending them to the line, is where the rematch turns.

How to watch

Washington at Golden State, tonight 7 p.m. PT (10 p.m. ET) at Chase Center. TV: KPIX (Bay Area), KOVR 13 (Sacramento), MNMT (Mid-Atlantic). Radio: 95.7 The Game, ESPN 1320, the Audacy app. Streaming: WNBA League Pass. The Valkyries are favored by about eight, with the total around 145, a low number that fits the league's best defense against its worst scoring offense. Hello Kitty Night: the first 10,000 fans get a plushie. Golden State is 6-0 all-time against Washington and 2-0 this season, having won 62-49 on July 6 and 74-69 on Saturday, and has sold out every home game at Chase Center since the inaugural season.

Standings and the rest of tonight's slate

Through Sunday's games, the top of the league sits at Minnesota 20-6 (.769, first, five-game winning streak), Golden State 19-7 (.731, second, nine-game streak), Las Vegas 17-7 (.708, third), and Dallas 17-8 (.680, fourth, franchise record-tying six straight). Indiana is 16-10, and Washington is 12-12 in eighth.

The rest of tonight's card, all of it tipping before or alongside the Valkyries:

New York (13-12) at Dallas (17-8), 5 p.m. PT. The makeup of the July 16 game postponed when the Liberty's charter plane had a mechanical issue. Dallas goes for a seventh straight, but Paige Bueckers' status is uncertain after she left Sunday's win over the Sparks following a scary fourth-quarter collision with Nneka Ogwumike, hitting her head on the court. Coach Jose Fernandez had no postgame update, and the Wings' injury report is due by 1 p.m. CT today.
Las Vegas (17-7) at Toronto (10-15), 5 p.m. PT, Peacock and NBCSN. The Aces' first game in eight days, with A'ja Wilson active, against a Tempo team playing without head coach Sandy Brondello, who is serving a one-game suspension for what the league called an inappropriate comment about Atlanta's Angel Reese on Friday.
Minnesota (20-6) at Seattle (6-21), 7 p.m. PT. Simultaneous with the Valkyries. Napheesa Collier remains out, Olivia Miles is back from her ankle scare.

Tracking

Bueckers watch. The Dallas star and All-Star top vote-getter walked off under her own power Sunday and was joking with teammates afterward, but she did not return and was being evaluated by team doctors after hitting her head on the court. Her availability tonight, and for next Saturday's All-Star Game, is the main league storyline of the day.
Burton's All-Star door, still open. Kelsey Plum (Sparks, Team Coop reserve) has missed six-plus straight and is being reevaluated in late July. No replacement has been named. Veronica Burton, the league's top win-shares guard outside the All-Star pool, backed her case with an 11-point, 11-assist, plus-16 double-double Saturday.
Williams is healthy and rolling. Eighteen points and two of the clutch threes Saturday, on track for her first All-Star start next Saturday in Chicago, drafted 10th overall by Cynthia Cooper's Team Coop.
Collier remains out for Minnesota, though she has returned to practice and is "itching" to return. The Lynx keep winning without her.