Six Days to the Trade Deadline, and the Valkyries Have a Closer Question

Golden State is 19-8 and second at the break, but Minnesota got Napheesa Collier back and the Aug. 2 trade deadline asks whether the league's best defense needs a closer. The restart comes Wednesday in Phoenix.

The deadline asks the question this roster has been answering all year

The WNBA trade deadline lands at 3 p.m. ET on Aug. 2 (WNBA), six days after the Valkyries play their first game back, and it lands on the one tension this team has managed since opening night. Golden State built the league's best defense and its deepest bench around a team-first identity, and it has the second-best record (19-8) to show for it. What it has not reliably built is a half-court basket in the last three minutes.

Natalie Nakase spent the break looking forward, not back. "Teams are getting better. They're going to be better after the break," she said. "Everyone is going to be looking at all of their losses and the things they can improve. My staff is already starting to think about what things we can do better. The main thing is we get healthy over the break and prepare for the postseason" (The IX).

Whether the front office agrees the answer is already in the building is the open question. Bleacher Report's deadline analysis sketched the trade that would test it: Kelsey Plum to Golden State for Janelle Salaün, Kaitlyn Chen and two unprotected first-round picks, betting that a point-of-attack stopper (Veronica Burton), the best wing defender in the world (Gabby Williams) and a per-minute rim protector (Kiah Stokes) could cover for a scoring guard's defensive gaps. The piece noted the front office is operating under a championship mandate from ownership, and that surrendering core depth is the counter-argument (Bleacher Report). It is one analyst's scenario, not reporting, but it frames the decision exactly.

The chemistry is real, and it is what a trade would cost. "What I've been happy about so far since training camp is how well we've been getting along," Nakase said. "Credit to them. I think they've been doing a lot more things for each other off the court" (SF Chronicle). The team visited Burton's childhood home in Massachusetts on the road trip; Kaitlyn Chen baked sourdough bread for the group.

The team they're chasing got its MVP back

The standings froze at the break, and the freeze favored the team ahead of Golden State. Minnesota (22-6) sat first and then got Collier back on July 22, when she went for 24 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes in her season debut after offseason surgery on both ankles (TSN). The Lynx were already 21-6 without her, with Olivia Miles, Natasha Howard and Kayla McBride. Now they add a top-five player in the world.

Golden State is 19-8, second, 2.5 games back. Las Vegas (18-8) is a half-game behind the Valkyries with a game in hand and A'ja Wilson. Dallas (18-9) sits 3.5 back (WNBA). The 1-seed runs through the one team the Valkyries have never beaten in their year and a half of existence, and the schedule hands them two more cracks: Aug. 19 at home and Aug. 24 in Minneapolis. The two meetings this season were decided by a total of nine points (The IX, ESPN).

The rest of August is a gauntlet either way. Ten of the final 17 are on the road, including a five-game trip to Chicago, Minnesota, Connecticut, New York and Portland. Twelve of the 17 come against teams currently under .500, and the Valkyries will see all seven of the league's bottom seven, so the floor is high. Dallas, which Golden State beat by 11 in mid-June, comes back twice: Aug. 7 on the road and Aug. 17 at Ballhalla (The IX).

Film room: the best defense, the second-worst clutch offense

The Valkyries' identity is a 76.4-points-allowed defense that leads the league, a bench that leads the league (35.4 a night), and a three-point volume (256 makes, also first) that lets them win from anywhere. The clutch numbers invert it. In the last five minutes of games within five points, Golden State's offensive rating was 95.2 through early July, 14th of 15 teams, ahead of only Connecticut (Bleacher Report). A 95 offensive rating is roughly five points below the league average per 100 possessions.

The July 20 loss is the case study. Up 80-73 with 3:32 left, the Valkyries did not make another three the rest of the way, scored two points over the final 3:32, and watched Washington's two-big frontcourt of Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Iriafen grab 27 rebounds between them, more than Golden State's entire roster (23). The league's best defense gave up 36 in the fourth quarter. When the threes stopped, there was no half-court alternative, and the size deficit Nakase keeps pointing to decided it (Sportsnet, StatMuse). That is the gap six days of deadline are about.

Wednesday: at Phoenix, the restart

Golden State resumes Wednesday at Phoenix, 7 p.m. PT (10 p.m. ET) at the Mortgage Matchup Center, on USA, CNBC, AZ Family Sports Net, KPIX+ 44 and KMAX 31 (ESPN, WNBA Schedule). The Valkyries are 5.5-point favorites with a 156.5 total (USA Today).

It is the first meeting in Phoenix this season. Golden State won both Chase Center games, 95-79 on May 10 and 87-81 on June 9, when Burton scored 19 of her 25 in the first half and Williams added 25 (AP). The Valkyries carry a five-game road winning streak into it (Data Skrive).

Phoenix (10-18, 13th) comes in on a two-game win streak, having beaten Connecticut and the Sparks 86-82 on July 22, when Alyssa Thomas posted her 20th career regular-season triple-double (19 points, 15 assists, 11 rebounds) and Kahleah Copper scored 21 (ESPN). Copper is averaging 20.5 points, seventh in the league, and the Mercury are fighting to climb back into the eighth-seed race a year after a Finals trip (Cronkite News). Phoenix tweaked its guard room over the weekend, signing undrafted rookie Kara Dunn to a developmental contract, re-signing forward Marta Suárez to a third seven-day deal and releasing Sha Carter (EssentiallySports).

Tracking

Trade deadline: Aug. 2, 3 p.m. ET. All terms must be with the league office by then (WNBA).
Gabby Williams: scored 18 (7-of-18, 4-of-13 from three) in her first All-Star start Saturday, Team Coop's third-leading scorer in the 129-122 loss. She returns to the Valkyries healthy Wednesday (CBS Sports).
Napheesa Collier: debuted July 22 with 24 and 10 in 22 minutes; Minnesota has won seven straight (TSN).
Veronica Burton: shut out of the All-Star Game. Kahleah Copper took Kelsey Plum's Team Coop spot on July 22, and Angel Reese played through her knee, closing the last door (azcentral).
Kelsey Plum: out since June 17 with a lower-left leg injury, the player at the center of the deadline speculation.
After Phoenix: home vs. Toronto Aug. 2 and 4, at Dallas Aug. 7, at Los Angeles Aug. 9, home vs. Chicago Aug. 12, home vs. Dallas Aug. 17, home vs. Minnesota Aug. 19, then the five-game trip (at Chicago Aug. 21, at Minnesota Aug. 24, at Connecticut Aug. 26, at New York Aug. 27, at Portland Aug. 30) (ESPN).